●What to watch in 2020: safety and environmental protection, production capacity, raw materials, demand, low growth.
●In 2019, the rubber additives market was relatively stable. There was no shortage of products and serious surplus at both ends of the supply and demand. The prices of rubber additives did not fluctuate greatly, and most of them showed a slow downward trend. 2020 is the last year of the 13th Five-Year Plan. Changes in the rubber additives market are expected to be mainly affected by these 4 factors:
1. Safety and environmental protection
1.1 Security. In the past two years, there have been frequent safety problems in the chemical industry, and safety inspections have also increased. Rubber additive manufacturers are increasing their investment in safety.
1.2 Environmental protection. Affected by the weather (smog, poor air quality) and national environmental protection policies, environmental protection inspections will continue to be carried out in various places. .
▲With the continuous deepening of safety and environmental protection supervision, rubber additives manufacturers will gradually adapt and improve, especially the implementation of the national environmental protection policy in the past four years, which has accelerated the re-integration and reshuffle of the rubber additives industry. Manufacturers that are stronger and survive the test of the market will develop better.
2. Upstream raw materials
The upstream raw material manufacturers in the rubber additive industry belong to the chemical industry and petrochemical industry. It remains to be seen whether production will be affected. Referring to the trend of previous years, the price of raw materials will increase when the production capacity is limited; the price of raw materials will fall when the supply is oversupplied or the upstream petrochemical products are lowered. . The price of upstream raw materials will directly affect the production cost and price of rubber additives.
3. Production supply
3.1 Adapt to the situation. As manufacturers gradually adapt to the national environmental protection policy, many manufacturers have begun to enter the chemical park planned by the government, and the actual production capacity of rubber additives has increased compared with previous years.
3.2 Increase in production capacity. From 2016 to 2018, the profit-making effect brought by the rubber additives industry attracted large manufacturers to expand production. According to public reports, the expanded production capacity exceeds 300,000 tons per year, which is significantly faster than the growth of downstream demand.
▲The output of China's rubber additives has accounted for more than 75% of the world's total, and there are so many expansions in the industry. It seems that everyone is optimistic about the development and future of China's rubber additives industry, especially the industry giants. However, excessive production expansion is worrying, the market survival space of small and medium-sized enterprises will be squeezed, and the industry will be reshuffled in the future.
4. Downstream Demand
4.1 International. Affected by the complex international situation of trade disputes and local conflicts, foreign economies continued to be in a period of low growth. According to the latest data released by the International Rubber Research Group (IRSG), the global rubber demand is expected to increase by 2.6% in 2020, of which the tire industry demand will increase by 1.5%, and the non-tire industry demand will increase by 4.3%. .
4.2 Domestic. In general, the automobile industry does not drive much demand for tires and rubber parts. Except for the growth of new energy vehicles, the overall growth is negative, and the decline rate is reduced. Most of the other rubber product industries are also in low growth.
▲On the whole, the downstream market demand for rubber additives has maintained a low growth trend as a whole.